“Tesla, Elon Musk, may again be the most powerful motivator that initiates significant, fundamental, change toward reducing our man-made global warming activities.”
Tesla’s recently unveiled semi-truck is aimed at the segment of the market that will [otherwise] likely be the slowest to transition to electric drivetrains. Constraints on price, range and payload capacity suggest the long-haul market may [without Tesla] be the last to embrace electric trucks, after urban freight, city busses, and other shorter-range, lighter-duty vehicle markets.
When two sleek Tesla Semis sped across an airport tarmac next to the SpaceX rocket factory in Los Angeles in November, Elon Musk rocked the heavy-duty vehicle market. Tesla quickly racked up about 400 truck reservations from big haulers like UPS and Anheuser-Busch
Tesla’s eye-catching design and claimed range of up to 500 miles per charge was even better than the 300 miles that was expected, as is its claim that the semi will produce fuel savings of $200,000 or more and a “two-year payback” period. That explains why UPS, Pepsico, Sysco and Anheuser-Busch, which put down up to $20,000 in refundable deposits per truck, want to be among its first buyers.
Nov. 17, 2017
J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. and Wal-Mart Stores Inc., which operate thousands of trucks, said Friday they had reserved Tesla’s truck, which Chief Executive Elon Musk revealed at an event in Hawthorne, Calif., on Thursday.
Truck leasing and fleet management company Ryder System Inc. is in the process of placing its initial order for a fleet of Tesla semi-trucks,” – Dennis Cooke, the company’s president of global fleet management solutions.
over-the-road infrastructure
Tesla says it is planning to build a global network of “megachargers” where truckers could recharge vehicles in about 30 minutes, gaining another 400 miles of range.
Feb. 2nd 2018
UPS, PepsiCo, and Anheuser-Busch, who have 265 Tesla Semi trucks on order between them, told Reuters that they have been holding talks with Tesla about installing charging infrastructure at their facilities.
Musk referenced the fact that 30 minutes is about the time it would take unload and load a truck, which means that it wouldn’t lose any time if the chargers are installed at the destination.
Musk also said that they would offer a guaranteed rate of 7 cents per kWh at those Megacharger stations to optimize savings against the fuel costs of diesel trucks.
Considering those rates are hard to find in the US, it launched speculation that Tesla would add solar power and/or energy storage to the stations.
Tesla said the truck would be cheaper to operate than diesel rivals and could potentially cost less than transport by rail.
Musk’s expected base prices of $150,000 for 300-mile range trucks and $180,000 for 500-mile semis, combined with their lower operating costs per mile versus diesel trucks, makes them even more attractive to companies with vast fleets.
[and these prices vastly undercut Tesla’s electric truck competitors!]
There’s also public relations value in committing to buying what could be the most disruptive and environmentally friendly heavy-duty truck ever developed.
Elon Musk knows what is important
Overall, heavy-duty trucks are big polluters. Though they only make up 10 percent of all vehicles on the road and 20 percent of all miles driven, freight trucks emit about 40 percent of all vehicle emissions.
Mounting regulatory pressure and future policy changes [do try and] may [eventually] push freight carriers to adopt lower-emission power trains in their vehicles, said Barclays analyst Michael Cohen in a note sent Monday.
Indeed, more than 200 cities have some kind of emissions regulation, and major cities such as Madrid, Paris, London and Mexico City have already announced bans on diesel engines, which could rapidly accelerate interest in electrics, Cohen said.
Also, U.S. regulations are set to improve fuel efficiency for tractors by 25 percent through 2027. Starting in 2019, China will begin tightening fuel consumption limits for heavy-duty trucks by almost 15 percent. The European Union plans to develop a carbon dioxide standard for heavy-duty vehicles in the first half of 2018.
All of these are signs that policy changes may matter more in the adoption of electric vehicles in freight than they will in the widespread adoption of electric cars.
“In our view, greater attention should be paid to developments in the freight sector than to those in the personal vehicle sector, for two reasons: policy could drive the adoption tipping point for freight vehicles more quickly than for personal vehicles, and the total cost of ownership and a faster turnover rate could drive freight truck fleet owners to adopt EVs more quickly than passenger vehicle owners,” Cohen said.
Tesla’s own entry “creates much optimism for EV adoption,” Cohen said, “but displacing oil in long-haul trucking has the most daunting cost and technological challenges of all segments. [therefore, thank goodness Tesla is “stepping up to the plate”!]
“Long-haul trucking is the most challenging duty cycle for a battery-electric vehicle to perform, given the long distances required at freeway speeds with a heavy payload in tow,” Matt Horton, startup Proterra’s chief commercial officer, said.
Some other companies in this area are focusing on these other markets, fitting electric motors and batteries into garbage trucks and city buses, rather than long-haul trucks.
Electric buses able to travel up to 200 miles a day in city driving already account for about 10% of U.S. transit agency orders in 2017.
Tesla has become the global standard among auto brands for electric cars, perhaps to a greater extent than Musk originally thought possible. Now he’s intent on replicating that in the heavy-duty truck market.
see original stories at
www.cnbc.com/2017/11/21/tesla-semi-may-be-aiming-at-the-wrong-end-of-the-freight-industry.html
www.forbes.com/sites/alanohnsman/2017/12/28/orders-pile-up-for-tesla-semi-that-doesnt-yet-exist-as-rival-electric-trucks-get-rolling/#6816d2224a0a
www.wsj.com/articles/teslas-electric-semi-truck-gets-orders-from-wal-mart-and-j-b-hunt-1510950438